Why pundits and voters should stop looking at national election polls.

The Washington Times reported a sort of "paradox" in the current GOP primary polling numbers. Although Rudolph W. Giuliani has shown that he is the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination in the national polls, it is Mitt Romney who is actually leading in the first four caucus and primary states.

The Times provides us with with the numbers from these states:

Iowa: Mr. Romney leads with 26 percent, followed by Mr. Giuliani with 16.8 percent, Mr. Thompson with 15.3 percent, Mr. McCain with 8.3 percent and Mr. Huckabee with 8 percent.

New Hampshire: Mr. Romney leads with 26.4 percent, followed by Mr. Giuliani with 22.4 percent, Mr. McCain with 15.2 percent, Mr. Thompson with 11.8 percent and Mr. Huckabee with 3.6 percent.

Nevada: Mr. Romney leads with 28 percent, followed by Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Thompson with 18 percent each and Mr. McCain with 8 percent.

Michigan: Mr. Romney leads with 26.3 percent, followed by Mr. Giuliani with 18.7 percent, Mr. Thompson with 14 percent, Mr. McCain with 12.7 percent and Mr. Huckabee with 3.3 percent.

Despite the fact that Romney's polling fourth in most national polls, if he does win these first four states, he could gain momentum for Super Tuesday. After that, a coronation in Minneapolis would be a certainty.

The truth is that I could care less about Governor Romney. I mention these statistics because national polls show that Hillary Rodham Clinton is heavily favored amongst Democrats. However, in polling of Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina show that Senator Obama is not too far behind.

The moral of this story is: don't believe all the polls you see. Remember Howard Dean? Joe Lieberman was the presumptive front-runner until Dr. Governor of Vermont came into the picture. Oh yeah, eventually some third-place senator from Massachusetts ended up winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and the rest.

We will know who the nominee of each party will be after the fifth of February. You can write that down. If I am wrong, I have no political instincts. That's a gamble I'm willing to take.